Foresight is the ability to predict, or the action of predicting, what will happen or what is needed in the future. Studies suggest that much of
human
Humans (''Homo sapiens'') are the most abundant and widespread species of primate, characterized by bipedalism and exceptional cognitive skills due to a large and complex brain. This has enabled the development of advanced tools, cultu ...
daily thought is directed towards potential future events. Because of this and its role in human control on the planet, the nature and evolution of foresight is an important topic in
psychology
Psychology is the scientific study of mind and behavior. Psychology includes the study of conscious and unconscious phenomena, including feelings and thoughts. It is an academic discipline of immense scope, crossing the boundaries between ...
. Thinking about the future is also studied under the label
prospection
In psychology, prospection is the generation and evaluation of mental representations of possible futures. The term therefore captures a wide array of future-oriented psychological phenomena, including the prediction of future emotion (affective fo ...
. Recent
neuroscientific,
developmental
Development of the human body is the process of growth to maturity. The process begins with fertilization, where an egg released from the ovary of a female is penetrated by a sperm cell from a male. The resulting zygote develops through mitosi ...
, and
cognitive studies have identified many commonalities to the human ability to recall past
episodes
Episodes may refer to:
* Episode
An episode is a narrative unit within a larger dramatic work or documentary production, such as a series intended for radio, television or streaming consumption.
The noun ''episode'' is derived from the Greek ...
. ''
Science
Science is a systematic endeavor that Scientific method, builds and organizes knowledge in the form of Testability, testable explanations and predictions about the universe.
Science may be as old as the human species, and some of the earli ...
'' magazine selected new evidence for such commonalities one of the top ten scientific breakthroughs of 2007. However, there are fundamental differences between mentally travelling through time into the future (i.e., foresight) versus mentally travelling through time into the past (i.e., episodic memory).
[Suddendorf T. "Episodic Memory Versus Episodic Foresight: Similarities and Differences". ''Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Cognitive Science'', 1, 99-107.]
In management
Foresight has been classified as a
behaviour (covert and/or overt) in management, a review,
analysis
Analysis ( : analyses) is the process of breaking a complex topic or substance into smaller parts in order to gain a better understanding of it. The technique has been applied in the study of mathematics and logic since before Aristotle (3 ...
, and
synthesis of past definitions and usages of the foresight concept into a generic definition, in order to make the concept measurable.
[Amsteus, M. (2008) "Managerial foresight: concept and measurement". ''Foresight: the journal for future studies, strategic thinking and policy'', Vol. 10 No. 1, pp. 53-66.]
Specifically, foresight has been defined as: "Degree of analyzing present contingencies and degree of moving the analysis of present contingencies across time, and degree of analyzing a desired future state or states a degree ahead in time with regard to contingencies under control, as well as degree of analyzing courses of action a degree ahead in time to arrive at the desired future state."
Prediction market
Prediction markets (also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives) are open markets where specific outcomes can be predicted using financial incentives. Essentially, they are exchange-trad ...
are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. This economic theory is credited to economists
Ludwig von Mises
Ludwig Heinrich Edler von Mises (; 29 September 1881 – 10 October 1973) was an Austrian School economist, historian, logician, and Sociology, sociologist. Mises wrote and lectured extensively on the societal contributions of classical liberali ...
and
Friedrich Hayek
Friedrich August von Hayek ( , ; 8 May 189923 March 1992), often referred to by his initials F. A. Hayek, was an Austrian–British economist, legal theorist and philosopher who is best known for his defense of classical liberalism. Haye ...
. Prediction Market gives the ability to aggregate information and make accurate predictions based on the
Efficient Market Hypothesis
The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is a hypothesis in financial economics that states that asset prices reflect all available information. A direct implication is that it is impossible to "beat the market" consistently on a risk-adjusted bas ...
, which states that assets prices are fully reflecting all available information. For instance, existing share prices always include all the relevant related information for the stock market to make accurate predictions.
See also
*
Future-oriented therapy Future-oriented therapy (FOT) and future-directed therapy (FDT) are approaches to psychotherapy that place greater emphasis on the future than on the past or present.
History
The term ''future-oriented therapy'' was first used in an article by psyc ...
*
Future orientation In psychology and related fields, future orientation is broadly defined as the extent to which an individual thinks about the future, anticipates future consequences, and plans ahead before acting. Across development, future orientation is particul ...
*
Futures techniques
Futures techniques used in the multi-disciplinary field of futurology by futurists in Americas and Australasia, and futurology by futurologists in EU, include a diverse range of forecasting methods, including anticipatory thinking, backcasting ...
*
Goal orientation Goal orientation, or achievement orientation, is an "individual disposition towards developing or validating one's ability in achievement settings". In general, an individual can be said to be ''mastery'' or ''performance'' oriented, based on whethe ...
*
Goal setting
A goal is an idea of the future or desired result that a person or a group of people envision, plan and commit to achieve. People endeavour to reach goals within a finite time by setting deadlines.
A goal is roughly similar to a purpose or a ...
*
Prospection
In psychology, prospection is the generation and evaluation of mental representations of possible futures. The term therefore captures a wide array of future-oriented psychological phenomena, including the prediction of future emotion (affective fo ...
*
Retrocognition
Retrocognition (also known as postcognition or hindsight ), from the Latin ''retro'' meaning "backward, behind" and ''cognition'' meaning "knowing", describes "knowledge of a past event which could not have been learned or inferred by normal means" ...
*
Vision (spirituality)
A vision is something seen in a dream, trance, or religious ecstasy, especially a supernatural appearance that usually conveys a revelation. Visions generally have more clarity than dreams, but traditionally fewer psychological connotations. ...
References
{{Reflist
Cognitive psychology
Management
Prediction